Theory & Research

Ulrike Malmendier is a professor at University of California, Berkeley, and her research covers inflation expectations of households, too. Her results indicate an additional strong impact by gender, income, education and race of an individual, as well as the impact of exposure to price signals in daily lives. I do consider this an important input towards the question: “Which governmental measure does impact the inflation expectations of households stronger: Price reductions at the source of consumption or compensation payments increasing the disposable income of households?”

Since 2022 she is member of the “German Council of Economic Experts”.

Person
Professor at Berkeley
Sachverständigenrat

Research
Experiencing Inflation – ECB Forum on the Central Banking, 2022
What Do the Data Tell Us About Inflation Expectations? – NBER Paper, 2022, with Michael Weber a.o.
Exposure to Grocery Prices and Inflation Expectations – Journal Paper, 2020, with Michael Weber a.o.

Markus Brunnermeier is professor at Princeton University. His research focuses on international financial markets and the macroeconomy with special emphasis on financial and monetary price stability. His works on inflation target the situation after the Covid shock and the optimal inflation rate.

Person
Wikipedia
Professor at Princeton University

Research
Inflation and Deflation Pressures after COVID shock – Webinar, 2020
On the optimal inflation rate – NBER Paper, 2016

Michael Weber is a professor at University of Chicago Booth School and his research covers inflation expectations, too, partly with Ulrike Malmendier jointly. Especially his data analysis underlines the indicate an additional strong impact by gender, income, education and race of an individual, as well as the impact of exposure to price signals in daily lives. I do consider this an important input towards the question: “Which governmental measure does impact the inflation expectations of households stronger: Price reductions at the source of consumption or compensation payments increasing the disposable income of households?”

Person
Professor at Chicago Booth

Research
What Do the Data Tell Us About Inflation Expectations? – NBER Paper, 2022, with Ulrike Malmendier a.o.
Exposure to Grocery Prices and Inflation Expectations – Journal Paper, 2020, with Ulrike Malmendier a.o
How did U.S. consumers use their stimulus payments? – (During Covid Lockdowns), 2020, a.o.

Ben Bernanke was a professor at Stanford University and Princeton University and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board from 2006 to 2014. 2022 he has been awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for his work on the role of banks in economy and especially in financial crisis, together with Douglas W. Diamond and Philip H. Dybvig. He was the first chairman of the FED who defined a target inflation, 2%, and acted accordingly.

Person
Wikipedia
Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences Press Release

Research
Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy – Keynote at NBER Conference, 2022
Inflation targeting – Wikipedia
A perspective on inflation targeting – Speech at NABE Conference, 2003

Milton Friedman was a professor at the University of Chicago for 30 years and one of the founders of the so called “Chicago School of Economics”. He did fundamental work on macroeconimics and in 1976 was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for his work in the fields of consumption analysis, monetary history and theory. Friedman is the most prominent supporter of the concept of monetarism, which favors steering an economy, including price stability via control of the money in circulation over government spending according to the Keynesian Economics.

Person
Wikipedia

Research
Inflation and Unemployment – Nobel Prize Lecture 1976

John Maynard Keynes was a professor at King‘s College in Cambridge, UK, for 26 years. His works are the basis of Keynesian Economics and New Keynesianism, one of the main thought schools in economics. One core of this work was the focus on the aggregated demand, which offers the government an option to steer the economy via its own demand. In contradiction to Milton Friedman he saw the cause of inflation not only in an expanded amount of money but supply shortage as well.

Person
Wikipedia

Research
Keynes on Inflation – Fed of Richmond, 1981

Paul A. Samuelson was a professor at the MIT in Cambridge, USA, for most of the time. Core of his work was the introduction of in scientific analysis of economic theory, for which he was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in 1970. Very important is his work together with Robert Solow on the augmented Phillips Curve, today “the Phillips Curve” about the correlation between inflation and unemployment.

Person
Wikipedia

Research
Phillips Curve Wikipedia
The Samuelson-Solow “Phillips Curve” and the Great Inflation – Miami University, 2010
Paul Samuelson and Monetary Analysis s – Essay St. Louis Fed, 2005

“Conducting and disseminating nonpartisan economic research”, founded in 1920
Website
History

Research
All Inflation related content
Inflation Expectations: Determinants and Consequences, Spring 2022 – Conference May 2022
Key Note Ben Bernanke

BIS is owned by 63 central banks from countries from around the world, together accounting for 95% of world GDP. Head office: Basel, Switzerland, and 2 offices in Hong Kong and in Mexico City. It’s the oldest international financial institution, established in 1930.
Website
History

Research
All inflation related content
Global supply chain disruptions: evolution, impact, outlook – Bulleting, September 2022
Quantifying the role of interest rates, the Dollar and Covid in oil prices – Paper from September 2022
Inflation indicators amid high uncertainty – Bulletin, September 2022

Independent, non-profit network association of central banks, supervisors, financial institutions, academic institutions, and financial sector practitioners, founded 1963 in France, today located in Vienna.
Website
History

Research
Key takeaways from the ECB’s new Financial Stability Review – Online Lecture, November 2022
The Return of Inflation – Conference, May 2022

One of the leading economic research institutes in Germany, independent and primarily publicly funded, founded in 1925, located in Berlin.
Website

Research
Austeritätspolitik der Ära Brüning hat den Wirtschaftseinbruch verstärkt und die Arbeitslosigkeit erhöht – Paper Juni 2022

Periods with inflation rates remarkably above the target inflation rate of 2% are named inflation, usually above 5%. When lower the inflation rates is just described by its value, e.g. “The inflation rate is at 3,5%.“

Wikipedia
Description by ECB

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change overtime in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

Calculation is as follows: A volume wise stable basket representing the consumption volumes of a household considered average is evaluated with current prices, leading to a potentially changing statistic total value of the basket. This value is put in relation to a base value of 100, in Germany 2015. Volumes are kept stable for the whole year, no seasonal changes considered. The result is considered the Consumer Price index, reflecting the relative change of total value. Example. A consumer price index of 110,5 represents a price change of the basket of 10,5% vs. baseline 100 in 2015.

The relative change of this index in comparison to prior year value (month or year) is called inflation rate. Example. The VPI increases from 109.6 to 110,5, the inflation rate is 0,8%.

Definition USA Bureau of Labor Statistics – FAQs
Description Bundesbank

Periods with a remarkable decrease in price level, inflation rates strongly below Zero, are named deflation, as opposite to inflation.

Wikipedia

Wikipedia